Forecasters project Tropical Storm Sara to form in the next day

A tropical depression in the Caribbean Sea has been upgraded to Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 Wednesday afternoon, and forecasters say it will affect Central America as a tropical storm.

The potential tropical cyclone is expected to become a tropical storm within the next day or so, the National Hurricane Center said. Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua are forecast to feel tropical storm and hurricane conditions in the next two days.

A hurricane watch is in effect for Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas.

The system is projected to bring 10 to 20 inches of rain, with some areas seeing around 30 inches, over northern Honduras.

“This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza,” forecasters wrote in the 4 p.m. advisory.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua, the system is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with some places seeing 15 inches through early next week.

If Tropical Storm Sara forms, where could it go?

Forecasters are unsure of the direction in which the system will move, but the best estimates are that it will move west toward Honduras over the next few days and then meander just offshore Central America later in the week and over the weekend.

It’s still unclear if it will make landfall and, if so, for how long.

After interacting with Central America, the hurricane center said it is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring to the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida and Cuba, next week.

European, Canadian, and other hurricane models and tracks show Florida potentially in its path, NBC 6 meteorologist John Morales posted on X. However, it is too early to tell, and current weather conditions make any future outcomes highly uncertain.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30.

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