It's been a bad year for wildfires in South Mississippi. It could get worse, experts say

The winter could be warm. Rains that might otherwise fall across South Mississippi may instead veer away. And dry breezes that would normally relieve the region of its thick summer heat could bring a new risk: wildfires.

A winter forecast released this month by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says warm temperatures and little rain will probably lead to worsening drought across the Mississippi Coast through February. Dry air and gusty winds already fueled a wildfire last week that burned hundreds of acres through the woods in Harrison County. Meteorologists say that risk will persist if the drought worsens.

"We're going to remain dry," said Chris Nothstine, a forest fire ecologist at the U.S. Forest Service in Mississippi. "Wildfires will start showing resistance to control."

Much of Jackson County is already in moderate drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. North Harrison and Hancock counties are also abnormally dry. Rainfall chances are slim over the next few weeks, said Megan Williams, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Slidell.

Forecasts say the drought is driven by a weather pattern called La Niña, when the Pacific Ocean cools and pushes rains north, leaving the South warm and dry. Those conditions are slowly developing and are expected to emerge later this fall, the NOAA forecast says.

Drought makes wildfires stronger, larger and more frequent.

"They run faster," said Kevin Craft, an outreach officer at the Mississippi Forestry Commission. "And there's a lot more of them."

Nothstine said South Mississippi started fall dry because it avoided major hurricanes in August and September. Warm temperatures and low humidity also dry out brush and other fuels in the woods. That means they burn longer if they light. Intense wildfires that spread through dry forests also jump natural barriers, such as roads, more easily. Nothstine said creeks — usually a natural barrier to flames — also may run dry.

Crews are already preparing for the long season. Craft said the Mississippi Forestry Commission is readying its equipment. Nothstine said the Forest Service may bring in extra equipment and prepare its staff to work longer hours or weekends.

Authorities are also asking residents to watch the weather.

"Do not burn on any windy, dry days," Craft said. "Watch your local burn bans."

Wildfires in South Mississippi are most common in fall and early winter because it is the driest time of year, Williams said. Highest risk comes when humidity is less than 30% and when winds reach 10 to 15 miles per hour.

Similar conditions fueled the wildfire last week in Harrison County, called Carson Six. The National Weather Service issued a red flag warning and asked residents to avoid burning the day the fire began. It spread fast through 1,333 acres of the De Soto National Forest, took three days to contain and did not burn any houses. On Monday, the U.S. Forest Service was still investigating its cause.

It was the latest wildfire in the region. Two wildfires that swept through Jackson County on a windy day in August sent residents fleeing but ultimately damaged no homes. Neither fire appeared intentional, but one was an accident caused by a contractor burning debris, according to the Jackson County Fire Marshal.

Nothstine said in drought, residents who normally burn piles or land each fall might reconsider.

Wildfires have burned for centuries in South Mississippi's forests, and modern firefighters often create prescribed burns to safely rid woods of dense brush that might otherwise become fuel. But Nothstine said the Forest Service is "not even looking at putting fire on the ground right now in South Mississippi."

"Now everything is so dry," he said, "that it just continues to burn."

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