Weather experts keep low odds for developing system while Hurricane Rafael heads west

ORLANDO, Fla. — While Hurricane Rafael headed west into the Gulf of Mexico and no threat to land for now, the National Hurricane Center kept track of another system with low odds to develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 1 p.m. Eastern time tropical outlook, the trough of low pressure with disorganized showers and thunderstorms extended from from near Hispaniola northeast over the southwestern Atlantic.

“Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas,” forecasters said. “Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas through Sunday.”

The NHC gave it a 10% chance of development in the next two to seven days.

The same trough is forecast to head northwest across the Florida Straits on Monday, according to the National Weather Service in Melbourne.

“Moisture will increase from the south with this feature on Monday resulting in scattered showers and isolated storms focused across our southern counties, south of Orlando and Cape Canaveral,” said NWS lead meteorologist Scott Kelly. “A weak cool front is forecast to push across the area Tuesday and absorb this disturbance.”

Meanwhile, what is still Hurricane Rafael continued to head west into the central Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane.

As of the NHC’s 10 a.m. advisory, the center of Rafael was located about 230 miles north-northeast of Progresso, Mexico and 535 miles east of the mouth of the Rio Grande River moving west at 9 mph.

Its maximum sustained winds fell to 110 mph, down from major Category 3 strength of 120 mph earlier Friday as it had gained back the intensity it had when it made landfall on Wednesday in Cuba. Hurricane-force winds extend out 30 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extend out 90 miles.

“Rafael is likely to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week,” forecasters said. “Steady weakening is expected during the next few days.”

The swells from the hurricane have been spreading across most of the Gulf of Mexico and should continue to be a hazard generating life-threatening surf and rip current conditions from Florida to Texas and into Mexico.

Rafael became the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1-Nov. 30.

It was the 11th hurricane and fifth major hurricane of the above-average season.

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