Mexican voters head to the polls on Sunday to begin picking judges in an unprecedented election that could give President Claudia Sheinbaum broad influence over a revamped judiciary, the only branch of government her party doesn’t control.

Polls open at 8 a.m. in Mexico City as voters pick a total of 881 federal judges, including all members of the Supreme Court. More than 3,000 little-known candidates are competing. Polls close at 6 p.m.

Voters will also elect five members of a new judicial discipline court that will be empowered to remove judges, as well as two judges on the top electoral court. At the state level, 19 Mexican states — more than half — are holding parallel elections for local judges, presenting those voters with additional ballots to sort through.

The government says that the judicial overhaul, championed by former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, will purge the judiciary of corrupt judges and rampant nepotism. Critics say it will undermine the rule of law by injecting more politics into the courts. Concerns that the election may remove a key check on the ruling party caused the peso to sell off last year.

“The balance of power in Mexico is over,” said Ulises Beltran, the director of local polling firm BGC. He added that at least three Supreme Court hopefuls that have in the past expressed some support for Morena policies will “certainly” win spots on the top court.

Voter turnout

The head of the electoral authority running the election, Guadalupe Taddei, has said that preliminary results for the Supreme Court races will not be posted Sunday night due to logistical factors. But voter turnout figures could be made available then, she said, adding that race-specific results could be announced starting on Monday.

“I’m sure there will be a very large turnout,” Sheinbaum predicted on Friday during her regular press conference. “It will be a great day for Mexico.”

Yet election experts are less upbeat.

Political analyst Gisela Rubach, head of Consultores y Marketing Politico, estimated an 8% to 12% turnout — among the lowest-ever levels of voter participation in the country’s democratic history. A 2021 referendum that asked voters whether or not ex-presidents should be investigated for corruption attracted a 7% turnout, the current record low.

Traditional television advertising, big rallies or party support were prohibited during the campaign. With limited means to make themselves known, candidates have largely relied on social media to reach out to voters. Leaders of Sheinbaum’s ruling Morena party and allied groups have in recent days handed out lists with the names of their preferred contenders, according to several local media reports.

“Powerful groups are the ones who are manipulating the election, both by choosing the candidates, and by promoting them now so that they win the elections,” said Maria Emilia Molina, a circuit judge who also leads the Mexican Association of Women Judges.

Molina also worries that overwhelmed voters will be susceptible to backing candidates they don’t know.

“Many will go to vote with no idea what they are choosing and will only pick the names they are told to vote for,” she said.

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(With assistance from Kelsey Butler and Maya Averbuch.)

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