DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. — For a few days, Democrats got to dream.

In two Florida congressional special elections, one south of Jacksonville and one in the Panhandle, the Democrats’ candidates, Josh Weil and Gay Valimont, were running stronger than expected in ruby-red districts. Fueled by liberal outrage around the country at the policies enacted by President Donald Trump, they had raised millions of dollars more than Republicans. Trump appeared concerned enough about the outcome of one of the races to nix a key political appointment.

After decades of backsliding, outnumbered by Republicans by more than a million voters statewide, Democratic leaders got to contemplate pulling off the impossible.

But by Tuesday evening, just minutes after polls closed in the respective races, it became clear there would likely be no earth-shaking Democratic victory. The Trump-endorsed former Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis and former state Sen. Randy Fine would win the District 1 and District 6 seats, respectively.

At the Full Moon Saloon, a western-themed bar blocks from the Atlantic Ocean, Weil supporters milled around the bar, cheering with announcements of Democratic-leaning early and mail-in ballots. Tuesday could have been the party of the year for Florida Democrats.

Instead, a quarter-hour after polls closed, reporters and bar staff rivaled the number of revelers.

“This is another example of Democrats over-promising and under-delivering,” said Barry Edwards, a political consultant and pollster who’s worked for both parties.

It made some sense for Democrats to hype up the races. Going into Tuesday, Republicans held a five-seat majority in the 435-member U.S. House of Representatives. With such a small edge over Democrats, it’s extremely difficult for Republicans to pass legislation without the help of their colleagues across the aisle. A Democratic flip or two in Florida would make the GOP’s work near impossible — giving Democrats even more leverage in Washington.

Democrats were also challenging districts that Trump won in the 2024 election by at least 30 points. Both used to be represented by key Trump allies: District 1 was held by Matt Gaetz, who resigned after Trump nominated him to be attorney general — a nomination from which Gaetz later withdrew. District 6, which comprises parts of Volusia, St. Johns, Putnam, Marion, Lake and Flagler counties, was Michael Waltz’s before Trump nominated him to be national security adviser.

If Valimont or Weil had won, it would have been interpreted by many as an indictment of Trump’s first few months in office.

Weil and Valimont both significantly overperformed the Democratic results from November. Trump won both districts by more than 30 points. With more than 90% of the votes tallied, Weil trailed Fine by 11. In the even redder District 1, Valimont had her race within single digits at the time of AP’s call.

For days leading up to Tuesday, turnout numbers showed Democrats outperforming Republicans in vote-by-mail and early voting. Last week, Trump pulled his nomination of U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York to be ambassador to the United Nations. That move was widely seen as an attempt to shore up the Republican majority in Washington — a sign Trump might be worried about the Florida special elections.

But a massive Republican turnout Tuesday ensured a victory for Fine. The Associated Press called the race shortly after 7:30 p.m. Patronis’ victory was projected around 8:20 p.m.

His win was no doubt helped by a final push by Trump himself. Last week, the president called into a Fine tele-rally. On Monday, Trump took to social media to urge his supporters to vote for Fine and Patronis.

Valimont’s loss in District 1 is her second defeat in six months. An advocate against gun violence, she had challenged Gaetz in November, only to lose by 32 points. But she raised more than $6.4 million for the April special election, federal campaign finance records show, buoying her hopes of a more competitive race this time around. And more competitive it was.

Evan Power, the chairperson of the Republican Party of Florida, mocked the Democrats’ fundraising totals.

“The Democrats are welcome to come set millions of dollars on fire,” Power said. “We’re up for the challenge.”

Weil’s race may offer some lessons for Democrats. A public school teacher, Weil ran as an unabashed progressive in the deep-red district. He advocated for taxing the rich and allowing access to universal government-funded health care. In large part, his campaign seized on the federal government cuts pushed by Trump and a top adviser, the billionaire Elon Musk.

In an interview, Weil said he aimed to convince people that government can help solve their problems.

“In this district, right now, when the biggest threat to voters here is unwarranted and irrational cuts to the essential services they rely on, progressive policies play strong,” Weil said.

Weil also attributed his campaign’s relative success to his opponent, Fine. The outspoken state senator has been openly feuding with Gov. Ron DeSantis for months, leaving top Florida Republicans somewhat divided over his candidacy.

DeSantis himself took a shot at Fine on Tuesday — hardly a sign of unity at a crucial political moment for Florida Republicans.

“If there’s an underperformance, they’re going to say, ‘See, it shows that voters are rejecting Trump,‘” DeSantis said, predicting the round of headlines out of the District 6 race. “It has nothing to do with that. This is a rejection of a specific candidate.”

Fine seemed certain of victory from early on and was late to campaign vigorously in the race. Weil said he seized on the vacuum left by Fine, with his campaign knocking on thousands of doors and talking face to face with the district’s voters.

A Democratic optimist might say that Weil’s campaign is evidence his party can succeed when they run well-funded campaigns with conviction about issues voters care about.

Weil’s campaign came with some small victories. He came within about 1,000 votes of flipping Volusia County, a formerly Democratic-leaning part of the state that has turned deep red in the past decade.

But in politics, such victories are overshadowed by the larger defeat. On Tuesday, Republicans won, and Democrats, as they often do in Florida, lost.

“This is a good start for something moving forward, but I don’t do moral victories,” Weil said in an interview Tuesday night. “There will be victories when we flip seats.”

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